The authorities in Niamey, Niger, have mobilized security forces to protect critical oil and electrical installations, as well as fuel depots in the capital. This comes after threats from the National Liberation Front (NLF), a rebel group led by Mahmoud Salah, to blow up vital infrastructure. This development underscores the growing instability in Niger, following the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023.
Mahmoud Salah:
- Background: Mahmoud Salah is a controversial figure from the Tebu ethnic group, which has settlements across the borders of Libya, Niger, Chad, and Sudan. His leadership of the National Liberation Front (NLF) emerged in August 2023, in response to the military coup that ousted President Bazoum.
- Threats and Actions: Salah has threatened to destroy oil facilities in the northeastern Agadim area. Although these threats have not been carried out, they have raised tensions and prompted the military junta to enhance security measures.
-Ethnic Concerns: The Tebu Tribe’s transnational presence raises regional concerns about the spread of insurgent activities across borders, potentially destabilizing neighbouring countries. Rebel groups may well establish rear support areas and logistical routes through neighbouring countries including Libya.
While not directly related to the NLF or Mahmoud Salah's threats, other rebel groups are also mobilizing in Niger, demanding the release of President Bazoum and the restoration of constitutional order.
- Council of Resistance for the Republic: The group was established on August 09, 2023 following the coup. It was established by Risa Ag Bula who is a Tuareg politician and former leader of rebel factions in the 1990s and 2000s. He was also the Minister of Tourism between 1996-2004. He was arrested in 2004 for murder, sparking clashes between his men and the government.
- National Front for Justice: A well-established Tuareg rebel group whose activities have reportedly restarted under the commanded of Captain Mohamed Toure in order to oppose the coup.
The regional council in Niamey, comprising senior officials from Niger’s defense and security forces aligned with the military junta, has implemented several measures to counter the insurgency threats:
- Enhanced Vigilance: Increased monitoring and security around vital installations, including oil wells and electrical infrastructure.
- Fuel Distribution Control: Strict oversight of fuel distribution to prevent it from being used to fund rebel activities.
- Food Flow Regulation: Tight control over the supply of food to areas identified as dangerous, aimed at cutting off support to armed groups.
The mobilization of various rebel groups, each with distinct leadership and goals, complicates the security landscape in Niger. The shared ethnic ties of the Tebu Tribe across several countries heighten the risk of cross-border insurgency activities. Neighbouring countries like Libya, Chad, and Sudan could be affected should an insurgency take hold in Niger.
The resurgence of rebel activities led by Mahmoud Salah, coupled with the mobilization of groups led by Risa Ag Bula and Captain Mohamed Toure, presents a significant challenge to Niger’s ruling military junta. The government’s response, involving heightened security and stringent control measures, reflects the seriousness of the threat. However, the underlying ethnic and political tensions suggest that lasting stability will require more comprehensive political solutions and regional cooperation.