Geopolitics: Russia strengthens relations with China

Executive Summary

-Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have pledged a new era of partnership, casting the United States as a Cold War hegemon and emphasizing deepened cooperation in defence and trade during a visit by the Russian president to China.
-The visit underscores significant geopolitical shifts, with Russia seeking alternatives to Western markets and China balancing its relationship with Moscow against broader international interests.
-Strategic discussions focus on the Ukraine conflict, energy exports, and military cooperation, with both nations aiming to counter Western influence.
-Despite growing cooperation, China remains cautious about fully aligning with Russia militarily to avoid severe economic repercussions from the West.

Introduction

Russian President Vladimir Putin has travelled to China, marking a pivotal moment in Sino-Russian relations. During his two-day visit, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping aim to bolster economic, military, and strategic ties amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and Western sanctions on Russia. This meeting underscores the mutual efforts of both nations to counter Western influence and strengthen their strategic partnership.

Before the visit, it was anticipated that Putin would focus on enhancing economic cooperation and securing new energy deals with China. Reports indicated that the visit, scheduled for May 15-16, aimed to mirror Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia in March 2023. This visit marks Putin's first international trip since his inauguration for a fifth presidential term on May 7, signalling the Kremlin's prioritization of its relationship with China.

The Visit

As the visit commenced, Putin was welcomed with full military pageantry in Beijing, reflecting the symbolic significance of his trip. This visit, Putin's fourth face-to-face meeting with Xi since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, highlights the tightening of relations between the two nations amidst ongoing conflicts and geopolitical shifts.

A joint statement released by the leaders emphasized their alignment on various issues, including energy, trade, security, and geopolitics, with specific references to Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East. The statement proclaimed that China-Russian relations are experiencing the best period in their history, with both leaders referring to each other as "priority partners."

During the meetings, Putin and Xi pledged to deepen their strategic partnership, focusing on practical cooperation in energy, industry, and agriculture. They discussed NATO's role in the Ukraine crisis and emphasized the need for a political and diplomatic settlement. Putin highlighted the record bilateral trade in the past year and stressed the importance of bolstering cooperation in these areas.

Geopolitical Context and U.S. Reactions

The joint statement characterized the United States as an aggressive Cold War hegemon sowing chaos globally. Both leaders criticized U.S. foreign policy, particularly its role in security issues. This rhetoric is part of a broader strategy by China and Russia to position themselves as counterweights to U.S. dominance.

U.S. President Joe Biden's administration views both Xi and Putin as authoritarian rulers who suppress free speech and control the media and courts tightly. Biden has labelled Xi a "dictator" and Putin a "killer" and a "crazy SOB," which Beijing and Moscow have strongly condemned. Recent U.S. diplomatic efforts, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China, aimed at undermining Xi's deepening relationship with Putin, appear to have been ineffective.

By choosing China for his first foreign trip since his new term, Putin is signalling the world about his priorities and the strength of his personal ties with Xi. This visit highlights the mutual dependence between Moscow and Beijing and their shared goal of countering Western influence.

Economic and Energy Cooperation

Economic ties between Russia and China have become increasingly crucial for Moscow as it faces Western sanctions. The visit aims to secure new agreements and provide updates on previously agreed cooperation through 2030. However, maintaining the previous growth rates in bilateral trade will be challenging amidst Western sanctions and economic pressures.

Energy cooperation is a major focus, with Russia seeking to expand its energy exports to China and secure greater Chinese investments in its energy and transit infrastructure. The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline project remains a critical aspect of these discussions, but China's cautious approach to the negotiations reflects its advantageous position in the relationship.

Military and Strategic Discussions

The military and strategic dimensions of the relationship are also key aspects of the visit. The joint statement emphasized the intention to deepen military cooperation, expand joint exercises, and improve joint response capabilities. However, China remains cautious about fully aligning with Russia's military endeavours to avoid severe economic repercussions from the West.

Discussions on strategic issues, including responses to Western sanctions and the Ukraine conflict, highlight the mutual interests of both nations in countering Western influence. However, China's reluctance to supply finished military equipment to Russia underscores its cautious approach to avoid severe economic decoupling from the West.

Conclusion

Putin's visit to China marks a significant step in the deepening of Russia-China relations. The trip aims to strengthen economic, military, and strategic ties between the two nations amidst growing Western pressure. While Russia seeks to enhance cooperation in energy exports and military drills, China's leverage and cautious approach will shape the outcome of these discussions. The visit underscores the mutual dependence between Moscow and Beijing and their shared goal of countering Western influence. However, the complexities of their relationship, particularly China's reluctance to fully commit to military alignment, highlight the cautious balance both countries strive to maintain in their strategic partnership.

The deepening ties between Russia and China reflect a broader trend of shifting global alliances and the challenges posed by Western sanctions and geopolitical tensions. As Moscow and Beijing navigate their partnership, the implications for global security and economic dynamics will continue to evolve, influencing the broader geopolitical landscape.