− Niger has terminated defense cooperation with the United States. This follows a similar decision to end its military cooperation with France following the July 2023 coup and will affect 1,000 U.S. personnel. Without a mediation agreement, the move is expected to lead to the evacuation of vital military facilities including Air Base 201 over the next year.
− The junta's pivot from Western alliances towards Russia and Iran is motivated by desires to consolidate power, assert national sovereignty, and diversify international partnerships amidst growing domestic and regional disillusionment with former colonial influences.
− Niger has signed a defense protocol with Russia and is likely to request Russian military support, mirroring trends in Mali and Burkina Faso but potentially compromising its security situation. Simultaneously, it's developing ties with Iran, signaling a complex balancing act in its international relations to avoid over-reliance on Moscow.
− This strategic recalibration and realignment within the Sahel have broader implications, highlighting a shift in geopolitical dynamics and posing challenges for Western counterterrorism efforts, indicating a global trend towards multipolarity.
Niger has officially terminated its defence cooperation with the United States, following a similar cessation of military ties with France after the July 2023 coup that ousted democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum. This move marks a significant shift in Niger's foreign policy and military alliances, indicating a broader realignment within the Sahel region. The termination affects approximately 1,000 U.S. military and civilian personnel and, unless a mediation agreement is struck, is expected to involve the evacuation of two key military facilities over the next year. This includes the strategically vital Air Base 201 near Agadez, which has been central to U.S. surveillance and counterterrorism operations in the Sahel and neighbouring Libya.
The decision by Niger's military junta to pivot away from Western military partnerships stems from a complex interplay of domestic and international factors. Domestically, the junta seeks to consolidate power and assert national sovereignty by distancing itself from former colonial and Western influences, which have become increasingly unpopular among portions of the Nigerien populace.
Map: Showing US bases in Niger
Internationally, this move reflects the growing influence of non-Western powers in the region, particularly Russia, with whom Niger signed a defence protocol agreement in December 2023. This is likely to result in Niger following in the footsteps of Mali and Burkina Faso, by requesting the deployment of Russian military and paramilitary forces. These forces however do not possess the same capabilities as the US and France, and their deployment is likely to herald a deterioration in the security situation in Niger.
Additionally, the junta has been strengthening ties with Iran, likely in an effort to avoid becoming too dominated by Moscow. In January, the junta-appointed Prime Minister, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, met with Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, resulting in agreements to boost health, economic and political cooperation. So far, Niamey has hinted at a potential uranium supply agreement with Tehran, despite logistical challenges given France's ongoing operation of Niger's primary uranium mine. This fledgling relationship between Niger and Iran could trigger a response by Gulf States which would be motivated to limit any Iranian influence in Niger.
Niger is also likely to further its relationship with Turkey which has already delivered six Bayraktar TB-2 drones to Niamey alongside a military training cooperation agreement. Turkey has developed a dual approach to Africa, blending military and economic engagement alongside humanitarian air and cultural outreach, opening 26 embassies on the continent between 2010 and 2016, including one in Niamey in 2012. Niger is likely to remain of notable interest to Turkey as it furthers its strategic interests across West Africa.
While the US may well pursue mediation efforts with junta leader Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani in a bid to maintain their military presence, or at least slow down their expulsion, they are also likely to accelerate efforts to establish drone bases elsewhere in West Africa. This will open up potential opportunities for other countries to strike deals with the US, with Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and Benin assessed as being the most likely at present. These countries are however too far from the Sahel for the US to effectively monitor Jihadist activity.
This pivot towards Russia and other non-Western allies suggests a strategic recalibration aimed at securing military support and political backing as part of efforts to consolidate the junta’s power in Niger. The likely deployment of Russian paramilitary personnel and increased cooperation with countries like Iran however, signal a complex and potentially volatile shift in the region's security landscape. While seeking to diversify its international partnerships, Niger's junta is navigating a delicate balance between asserting sovereignty, managing domestic legitimacy, and addressing the persistent security threats from jihadist groups in the Sahel.
The broader implications of Niger's actions extend beyond its borders, highlighting a shift in the geopolitical and security dynamics of the Sahel. For Western powers, particularly the United States and France, this represents a setback in their counterterrorism efforts and influence in the region. The vacuum left by their withdrawal may not only embolden jihadist groups but also underscores the increasing competition for influence in Africa between Western nations and countries like Russia and Iran. This realignment poses significant challenges for regional security, counterterrorism operations, and the future stability of the Sahel, while also reflecting wider global shifts towards multipolarity and redefined international alliances.